Do you know the exact operational status of the UK’s Terrorism Threat Level today? More importantly, do you understand how these ratings are evaluated, who makes the decision, and what they mean for on-the-ground security planning?

For security professionals and venue managers across the country, keeping pace with threat intelligence is critical. The UK operates a five-tier threat system to assess the likelihood of a terrorist incident:

LOW – an attack is highly unlikely

MODERATE – an attack is possible, but not likely

SUBSTANTIAL – an attack is likely

SEVERE – an attack is highly likely

CRITICAL – an attack is highly likely in the near future

Current threat level

The current national threat level from all forms of terrorism is: SEVERE – an attack is highly likely.
How threat levels are decided:

How Threat Levels Are Assessed The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC), based at MI5 headquarters, is responsible for evaluating intelligence and setting the national threat level. JTAC’s assessment covers all forms of terrorism across Great Britain (Northern Ireland-related terrorism within Northern Ireland is assessed separately).

Threat levels consider the threat from all forms of terrorism, including:

• Islamist terrorism
• Extreme right-wing terrorism
• Left Wing, Anarchist and Single-Issue Terrorism (LASIT)
• Northern Ireland terrorism.

Threat levels do not have any set expiry date but are regularly subject to review to ensure that they remain current. To reach a judgement on the appropriate threat level in any given circumstance, some factors are taken into consideration.

These include:

• Available intelligence
• Terrorist capabilities
• Terrorist intentions
• Timescale

Key Historical Insights

When considering the history of threat levels within the UK, since 1 August 2006, there were only four occasions (fortunately) where the threat level was raised to the highest level (CRITICAL). Interestingly, when the threat level reached critical it remained at that level for no longer than four days.

Finally, it is also interesting to note that since 2006, when threat levels began to be published, we have not to date, in the UK, experienced any MODERATE or LOW threat levels.

For security personnel, an elevated threat level underlines the need for steady vigilance, up-to-date staff training, and proactive site risk assessments.